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Breaking Defence · May 26 2026

Defence Analysis · Poland · PAC-3 · Patriot · HIMARS · Hellfire · Industrial Sovereignty Analiza Obronna · Polska · PAC-3 · Patriot · HIMARS · Hellfire · Suwerenność Przemysłowa

Poland Gets US Approval to Manufacture Patriot Missiles at Home. HIMARS and Hellfire Are Next. The Iran War Made It Happen. Polska Otrzymuje Zgodę USA na Produkcję Pocisków Patriot w Kraju. HIMARS i Hellfire Są Następne. Vojna z Iranem To Umożliwiła.

Fides Polonia Capital Management · Defence Analysis · May 26 2026 Fides Polonia Capital Management · Analiza Obronna · 26 Maja 2026

Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk announced that the US State Department has granted Poland preliminary approval to produce PAC-3 Patriot interceptor missiles on Polish soil — as well as missiles for HIMARS systems and Hellfire. This is a breakthrough that Poland has been fighting for since 2023, through two years of deadlocked negotiations. Understanding why it happened now, and what it actually changes, requires understanding what the Iran war did to the global missile supply chain in February 2026. Wiceminister Obrony Cezary Tomczyk ogłosił, że Departament Stanu USA przyznał Polsce wstępną zgodę na produkcję pocisków PAC-3 Patriot na polskiej ziemi — a także pocisków do systemów HIMARS i Hellfire. To przełom, o który Polska walczyła od 2023 roku, przez dwa lata zablokowanych negocjacji.

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For two years, Poland had been asking the United States for one thing above almost all others in its defence industrial programme: permission to manufacture the missiles that go into its own weapons systems on its own territory. The answer, consistently, had been no. Not because Poland was not trusted. Not because the technology was too sensitive. But because the United States, through its export control system known as ITAR, had simply never given any country outside the US and Australia the right to produce GMLRS rockets for HIMARS. And PAC-3 Patriot interceptors had barely been co-produced at component level, let alone at the finished missile stage. Then, on February 28 2026, Israel struck Iran, and everything changed. Przez dwa lata Polska prosiła Stany Zjednoczone o jedno ponad wszystko inne w swoim programie przemysłu obronnego: pozwolenie na produkcję pocisków do własnych systemów uzbrojenia na własnym terytorium. Odpowiedź była konsekwentnie negatywna. Potem, 28 lutego 2026 roku, Izrael uderzył w Iran i wszystko się zmieniło.

PAC-3 MSEPatriot interceptor — approved for Polish productionPocisk Patriot — zatwierdzony do polskiej produkcji
GMLRSHIMARS missile — production negotiations ongoingPocisk HIMARS — negocjacje w toku
HellfireApache missile — approval in principle confirmedPocisk Apache — zgoda co do zasady potwierdzona
1,500PAC-3 missiles consumed in first 16 days of Iran warPocisków PAC-3 zużytych w pierwszych 16 dniach wojny z Iranem
600/yrLockheed Martin PAC-3 output before Iran warRoczna produkcja Lockheed Martin PAC-3 przed wojną z Iranem
2,000/yrTarget PAC-3 output under new Pentagon dealDocelowa produkcja PAC-3 w ramach nowej umowy z Pentagonem

I. Why This Happened Now — The Iran War Burned Through the Global Supply in 16 Days I. Dlaczego To Się Stało Teraz — Wojna z Iranem Spaliła Globalne Zapasy w 16 Dni

To understand the significance of Tomczyk's announcement, you need to understand what happened to the global Patriot missile stockpile in the opening weeks of the Iran war. It was one of the most alarming single consumption events in the history of modern air defence.

When the Iran war began on February 28 2026, the United States and its Gulf allies began intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles and drone swarms using their Patriot batteries. According to estimates by the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, the US and Gulf states consumed approximately 1,500 PAC-3 missiles in the first 16 days of the conflict. To put that in context: Lockheed Martin, the sole manufacturer, was producing approximately 600 PAC-3 MSE missiles per year at that point. The war consumed more than two years of global production output in sixteen days.

Part of that burn rate reflected poor targeting discipline — Gulf forces were using the high-end PAC-3 interceptors, which are designed to kill ballistic missiles, against Iranian Shahed drones, which could have been neutralised with far cheaper and simpler weapons. But even accounting for that inefficiency, the underlying message was unavoidable: the world does not have nearly enough of these missiles, and one country cannot produce them fast enough to meet the demand that a regional war generates. Kiedy 28 lutego 2026 roku rozpoczęła się wojna z Iranem, USA i ich sojusznicy z Zatoki Perskiej zaczęli przechwytywać irańskie pociski balistyczne i roje dronów przy użyciu swoich baterii Patriot. Według szacunków brytyjskiego Royal United Services Institute, USA i kraje Zatoki Perskiej zużyły około 1 500 pocisków PAC-3 w ciągu pierwszych 16 dni konfliktu. Lockheed Martin produkowała wówczas około 600 pocisków PAC-3 MSE rocznie. Wojna zużyła ponad dwuletni globalny wolumen produkcji w szesnaście dni.

The stockpile crisis that forced Washington's hand: The United States informally approached Poland in late March 2026, asking Warsaw to consider redeploying one of its two Patriot batteries — and transferring PAC-3 interceptors already in Polish possession — to the Middle East theatre. Poland had approximately 200 PAC-3 MSE missiles, most already delivered under the 2019 Wisła contract. Poland's Defence Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz and Deputy Minister Tomczyk rejected the request immediately and publicly: "Our Patriot batteries serve to protect Polish skies and NATO's eastern flank. Nothing is changing." But the episode revealed that the US was so short of Patriot missiles that it was asking allied countries to give up their home defence stocks. In that context, approving allied domestic production was no longer a technology export question — it was a strategic necessity. Kryzys zapasów, który zmusił Waszyngton do działania: USA nieoficjalnie zwróciły się do Polski pod koniec marca 2026 roku, prosząc Warszawę o rozważenie przesunięcia jednej z jej dwóch baterii Patriot — i przeniesienia pocisków PAC-3 będących już w polskim posiadaniu — na Bliski Wschód. Polska odmówiła natychmiastowo i publicznie. Ale epizod ten ujawnił, że USA były tak krótkie na pociski Patriot, że prosiły sojusznicze kraje o oddanie swoich zapasów obrony krajowej.

Washington's response was rapid and consequential. In January 2026 — before the Iran war even began but as the threat was building — the Pentagon signed a seven-year agreement with Lockheed Martin to triple PAC-3 MSE production from 600 to approximately 2,000 missiles per year. A $4.76 billion firm-fixed-price Army production contract followed in April 2026. To support this expansion, Lockheed Martin partnered with European companies including Germany's Diehl Defence and Spanish firms Tecnobit-Grupo Oesía and Sener to strengthen the supply chain. The approval for Poland to produce PAC-3 components and eventually full missiles is the next logical step in that same supply chain diversification — manufacturing closer to potential theatres of use, reducing transport time, and reducing single-point dependency on the Lockheed Martin production lines in Camden, Arkansas. Reakcja Waszyngtonu była szybka i poważna. W lipcu 2026 roku Pentagon podpisał siedmioletnią umowę z Lockheed Martin na potrojenie produkcji PAC-3 MSE z 600 do około 2 000 pocisków rocznie.

II. What Poland Has Already Built — The Foundation That Made This Possible II. Co Polska Już Zbudowała — Fundament, Który To Umożliwił

The Tomczyk announcement did not come from nowhere. Poland has been building its industrial readiness for this moment for years, working methodically inside the Wisła programme — Poland's medium-range air and missile defence procurement — to develop the technical capability, the quality certifications, and the political trust with American partners needed to justify the production approval.

In September 2025 — a milestone that passed largely unnoticed outside specialist defence publications — Polish defence company WZE S.A. (Wojskowe Zakłady Elektroniczne — Military Electronics Works) and Lockheed Martin completed production line validation of two critical PAC-3 MSE component production activities. The US Government audited and certified that the Attitude Control Section and Attitude Control Motor components produced at WZE's facility meet the quality, safety, and compliance standards required to join the global PAC-3 MSE supply chain. These are not peripheral components — the Attitude Control Section and its motors are critical for the missile's trajectory and Hit-to-Kill accuracy, firing explosively to adjust the missile's course for body-to-body impact with its target. Poland was already producing pieces of Patriot missiles before this approval. The approval now extends that to the complete missile.

In August 2024, Poland's Huta Stalowa Wola and Raytheon Polska signed a contract for the production of 48 M903 launchers — the physical launch platforms for Patriot missiles — to be delivered 2027–2029. Poland was already making Patriot launchers. Getting approval to also make the missiles that go inside them is the logical completion of a production ecosystem that has been assembled piece by piece over seven years. We wrześniu 2025 roku polska firma obronna WZE S.A. i Lockheed Martin ukończyły walidację linii produkcyjnych dwóch krytycznych komponentów PAC-3 MSE. Rząd USA przeprowadził audyt i certyfikował, że Sekcja Sterowania Kursem i Silnik Sterowania Kursem produkowane w obiekcie WZE spełniają wymagane standardy. W sierpniu 2024 roku Huta Stalowa Wola i Raytheon Polska podpisały kontrakt na produkcję 48 wyrzutni M903.

III. The Three Missiles — What Poland Plans to Produce and Why Each Matters III. Trzy Pociski — Co Polska Planuje Produkować i Dlaczego Każdy Ma Znaczenie

PAC-3 MSE

Patriot Interceptor · Approval: Preliminary confirmedPrzechwytywacz Patriot · Zgoda: Wstępnie potwierdzona

The most advanced Patriot interceptor — PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement. Uses Hit-to-Kill technology: it does not explode near its target, it physically rams into it at closing speeds of several kilometres per second, destroying ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and aircraft. Range approximately 35 km, ceiling approximately 20 km. Poland has 48 Patriot launchers and approximately 200 PAC-3 MSE missiles. The Iran war demonstrated that 200 missiles provides only a few days of wartime consumption. Domestic production removes Poland's dependency on American stockpile availability — and removes the risk of a repeat of the March 2026 request to transfer Polish missiles abroad. Poland's WZE already produces the Attitude Control Section and Attitude Control Motor under the Wisła offset programme. Full missile assembly is the next step.Najbardziej zaawansowany przechwytywacz Patriot. Używa technologii Hit-to-Kill: fizycznie taranuje cel z prędkościami zbliżania kilku kilometrów na sekundę. Polska ma 48 wyrzutni Patriot i około 200 pocisków PAC-3 MSE. Domowa produkcja usuwa zależność Polski od dostępności amerykańskich zapasów.

GMLRS / HIMARS Rockets

HIMARS Munition · Status: Approval in progress — previously deadlockedAmunicja HIMARS · Status: Zgoda w toku — wcześniej zablokowana

The Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System — the standard munition for Poland's 486 planned HIMARS launchers (Homar-A programme). Range 85 km, GPS-guided, precision strike. Poland has been attempting to secure US approval for domestic GMLRS production since 2023 — and as of March 2026, that programme was described as being at an impasse. Australia is the only country outside the US to have received approval to produce GMLRS. The Tomczyk announcement suggests the deadlock has now broken. Production planned at Mesko, a PGZ subsidiary, initially from US-supplied kits. Poland also produces the Korean-equivalent CGR-080 rocket under the Homar-K/Chunmoo programme — a contract for over 10,000 rounds signed in 2025.Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System — standardowa amunicja dla 486 planowanych wyrzutni HIMARS (program Homar-A). Polska próbuje uzyskać zgodę USA na krajową produkcję GMLRS od 2023 roku. Do marca 2026 roku program był opisywany jako zablokowany. Ogłoszenie Tomczyka sugeruje, że impas dobiegł końca.

Hellfire

Apache Attack Helicopter Missile · Approval: Confirmed in principlePocisk Śmigłowca Uderzeniowego Apache · Zgoda: Potwierdzona co do zasady

The AGM-114 Hellfire is the primary air-to-ground missile for Poland's 96 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters — a contract signed in 2023. Range 8 km, laser-guided, anti-armour. Each Apache can carry up to 16 Hellfires. Poland's 96 Apaches at full loadout represent over 1,500 individual Hellfire missiles — and in wartime, consumption rates mean that supply chain independence is existential. Domestic Hellfire production is planned as part of the same industrial ecosystem being built around MESKO and HSW. This is a joint production arrangement — Polish companies manufacture, under American licence, components and eventually complete missiles that benefit both Polish and US supply chains.AGM-114 Hellfire to główny pocisk powietrze-ziemia dla 96 śmigłowców szturmowych AH-64E Apache w Polsce. Każdy Apache może przenosić do 16 Hellfire. Polska produkcja Hellfire jest planowana jako część tego samego ekosystemu przemysłowego budowanego wokół MESKO i HSW.

IV. The Polish Industrial Network That Will Build These Missiles IV. Polska Sieć Przemysłowa, Która Zbuduje Te Pociski

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PGZ (Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa)

National Defence Industrial GroupNarodowa Przemysłowa Grupa Obronna

Poland's state-owned defence industrial conglomerate — the parent organisation overseeing Polish domestic production. PGZ's subsidiaries will execute the actual manufacturing. The government has committed nearly PLN 4 billion to recapitalise the PGZ Narew consortium focused on air and missile defence.Państwowy konglomerat przemysłu obronnego Polski. Rząd zobowiązał się do prawie 4 miliardów PLN na dokapitalizowanie konsorcjum PGZ Narew skupionego na obronie powietrznej i przeciwrakietowej.

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WZE S.A. (Military Electronics Works)

PAC-3 Component ProducerProducent Komponentów PAC-3

Already certified to produce PAC-3 MSE Attitude Control Sections and Attitude Control Motors — the components validated by US Government audit in September 2025. WZE is the natural lead for full missile assembly. Also signed March 2026 contract for a CAMM-ER missile maintenance and production centre within its facilities.Już certyfikowany do produkcji Sekcji Sterowania Kursem i Silnika Sterowania Kursem PAC-3 MSE — komponentów zwalidowanych przez audyt rządu USA we wrześniu 2025 roku. WZE jest naturalnym liderem dla pełnego montażu pocisków.

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Huta Stalowa Wola (HSW)

Launcher & Heavy Weapons ManufacturerProducent Wyrzutni i Broni Ciężkiej

Poland's primary heavy defence manufacturer. HSW signed with Raytheon Polska in August 2024 to produce 48 M903 Patriot launchers (2027–2029). HSW also participates in the Homar-A HIMARS launcher programme — producing the Polish Jelcz 6x6 truck chassis and Polish fire control system integration. HSW is the industrial backbone for every major ground-based weapons programme Poland is building.Główny ciężki producent obrony w Polsce. HSW podpisała umowę z Raytheon Polska w sierpniu 2024 roku na produkcję 48 wyrzutni M903 Patriot. HSW uczestniczy również w programie wyrzutni HIMARS Homar-A.

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MESKO (PGZ subsidiary)

Planned HIMARS Missile ProducerPlanowany Producent Pocisków HIMARS

MESKO is the designated production site for GMLRS missiles under the Homar-A programme — confirmed by Lockheed Martin at a Warsaw conference. Initial production from US-supplied kits, transitioning to increasing Polish content over time. MESKO already produces a range of artillery and rocket munitions and is the natural facility for integrating GMLRS production.MESKO jest wyznaczonym miejscem produkcji pocisków GMLRS w ramach programu Homar-A — potwierdzonym przez Lockheed Martin na konferencji w Warszawie. Początkowo produkcja z zestawów dostarczonych przez USA, przechodząca do coraz większej polskiej treści.

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Lockheed Martin

Technology Licensor — PAC-3 & HIMARSLicencjodawca Technologii — PAC-3 i HIMARS

Sole manufacturer of PAC-3 MSE and GMLRS globally, now tripling production to 2,000 PAC-3 MSE per year. Lockheed explicitly invited Polish industry to participate in HIMARS missile production, with MESKO identified as the target facility. The US-Poland co-production arrangement means Lockheed's supply chain expands to European production — reducing shipping time to potential European theatres and adding allied production capacity.Jedyny producent PAC-3 MSE i GMLRS na świecie, teraz potrójnie zwiększający produkcję. Lockheed wyraźnie zaprosił polski przemysł do udziału w produkcji pocisków HIMARS, z MESKO zidentyfikowanym jako docelowy obiekt.

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RTX / Raytheon

Patriot System Prime ContractorGłówny Wykonawca Systemu Patriot

Raytheon Missiles and Defense is the Patriot system's prime contractor — responsible for the radar, command system, and overall integration. Raytheon Polska signed the M903 launcher production deal with HSW in August 2024. Raytheon also developed LTAMDS — the new radar replacing the legacy AN/MPQ-65 in Poland's Wisła Phase 2 batteries, with Poland as one of the first international customers.Raytheon Missiles and Defense jest głównym wykonawcą systemu Patriot. Raytheon Polska podpisała umowę na produkcję wyrzutni M903 z HSW w sierpniu 2024 roku.

V. What This Changes — The Strategic Significance in Plain English V. Co To Zmienia — Strategiczne Znaczenie Prostym Językiem

The plain English version of why this matters has three parts.

First, it solves the stockpile problem. Poland currently has approximately 200 PAC-3 missiles. The Iran war demonstrated that a determined adversary with ballistic missiles and drone swarms can exhaust 1,500 interceptors in 16 days. Poland's 200 missiles would last roughly two days of high-intensity combat under similar conditions — before Warsaw would need to ask Washington for resupply. With domestic production, Poland can build its own stockpile over time at its own pace, independent of American production priorities, congressional appropriations cycles, and competing Allied demands. This is the difference between an air defence that exists on paper and one that can sustain a fight.

Second, it ends the HIMARS hostage situation. As of March 2026, Poland's entire Homar-A programme — 486 HIMARS launchers at a cost of billions of dollars — was described as being at a dead end because the US had not approved domestic missile production. Poland was potentially paying for hundreds of sophisticated rocket launchers with no guaranteed ammunition supply beyond US goodwill. The approval breaks that dependence and gives the Homar-A programme a viable long-term logistics foundation. For comparison, Australia — the only other country to have received GMLRS production approval — has far fewer HIMARS launchers. Poland, with 486 planned, will have the world's largest fleet outside the United States.

Third, it creates a new European missile production node. The joint production language is explicit — Polish and American companies both benefit. Lockheed Martin's global supply chain now has a European manufacturing partner for PAC-3 components and GMLRS, reducing shipping time from production to theatre from weeks to days. Poland becomes a forward production node for the NATO missile ecosystem — not just a customer, but a manufacturer. That industrial status has long-term implications for Poland's influence within the alliance, its leverage in future procurement negotiations, and its ability to supply allies in a crisis. W prostym języku to, dlaczego ma to znaczenie, ma trzy części. Po pierwsze, rozwiązuje problem zapasów. Po drugie, kończy sytuację zakładnika HIMARS. Po trzecie, tworzy nowy europejski węzeł produkcji pocisków. Polska staje się węzłem produkcji do przodu dla ekosystemu pocisków NATO — nie tylko klientem, ale producentem.

The Fides Polonia investment connection: The PAC-3 and HIMARS production approval is a direct revenue catalyst for several Polish defence industrial companies within or adjacent to the PGZ ecosystem. WZE S.A., Huta Stalowa Wola, and MESKO are not publicly listed — they are PGZ subsidiaries. But the broader investment implication is for Polish defence suppliers publicly listed or that supply components into this chain. KGHM — Fides Polonia's largest holding — produces copper that is fundamental to electronics, guidance systems, and motor windings in precision munitions. Every PAC-3 MSE, GMLRS, and Hellfire missile produced in Poland contains copper. At hundreds or thousands of missiles per year, this is incremental but meaningful demand. The deeper point is structural: Poland's defence industrial build-out across missiles, drones, helicopters, tanks, and ships represents the most sustained manufacturing investment programme in Polish history — and it flows through the Polish industrial economy in ways that benefit commodity producers, logistics companies, and real estate owners serving the defence zones across the country. Połączenie inwestycyjne Fides Polonia: Zatwierdzenie produkcji PAC-3 i HIMARS jest bezpośrednim katalizatorem przychodów dla kilku polskich firm przemysłu obronnego w ekosystemie PGZ lub sąsiadujących z nim. KGHM — największy holding Fides Polonia — produkuje miedź, która jest fundamentalna dla elektroniki, systemów naprowadzania i uzwojeń silników w amunicji precyzyjnej.

Daniel Chojnowski

Founder & Managing Partner · Fides Polonia Capital Management
Kraków, Poland · May 26 2026 · fidespolonia.com
Sources: Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk official announcement · AeroTime Hub (March 31 2026) · Kyiv Post (April 6 2026) · Defence24.pl (March 20–21 2026) · Army Recognition / Lockheed Martin (June 2024) · Defence Industry Europe — WZE/Lockheed Martin production line validation (September 2025) · Breaking Defense · The Defense Post · Advanced Manufacturing (January 2026) · Global Security / Sputnik (August 2024)
Założyciel i Partner Zarządzający · Fides Polonia Capital Management
Kraków, Polska · 26 maja 2026 · fidespolonia.com

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This analysis is published by Fides Polonia Capital Management for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. (WSE: KGH) is held in the Fides Polonia portfolio. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) are mentioned for informational context only and are not held in the portfolio unless stated otherwise. KNF registration pending. Ta analiza jest publikowana przez Fides Polonia Capital Management wyłącznie w celach informacyjnych i edukacyjnych. KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. (GPW: KGH) jest w portfelu Fides Polonia. Rejestracja KNF w toku.